Exter, T. (1987, May). How many Hispanics? American Demographics.

OVERVIEW

Since W.W.II the Hispanic population in the U.S. has grown from just a few million to 18 million. They are the nation’s second largest minority. But they may be drastically underestimated and are one of the least understood segments of the population for two reasons:

• No one knows how many "illegals" come into the country.
• No one knows how many Hispanics decline to identify themselves on census forms.

The United States Census Bureau projects that "shortly after 2000 there would be twice as many Hispanics as there are now, and the Spanish-origin population would be growing by one million persons per year...By 2030 the Spanish-origin population would be four times its present size," and by 2080 there would be nine times as many Hispanics as today. These projections carry profound implications for the American population and culture.

Exter notes: "The total U.S. population is expected to grow from 239 million in 1985 to 283 million in 2010, only an 18% increase in 25 years. If the Hispanic population grows at the slowest rate that the bureau projects, Hispanics will account for 20% of the U.S. population growth. But if the Hispanics grow at the highest rate that the bureau projects, they will account for 54% of the nations growth," rising from 7% of the population today to 14% by 2010—a larger minority than blacks at that time.

What scenario would produce slow growth?

• A rapidly declining Hispanic birthrate.
• A rise in the death rate due to an aging Hispanic population.
• Lessened Hispanic immigration.

The converse would produce maximum growth.

• A slowly declining birthrate.
• A declining death rate.
• Increased immigration.

The best guess seems to be based on middle series assumptions between these two extremes. This moderate approach projects Hispanics surpassing blacks as the largest minority in 2015 and comprising 28% of the U.S. population in 2080. Middle- and old-age groups should grow more rapidly than children and young adults.

Accordingly, the U.S. Census projects all ages of the Hispanic population (in millions):

Projections (in millions) for Hispanic young people ages 10-19 follow:

IMPLICATION

In the United States, Spanish is the most important language after English. Hispanic culture is a most important contribution, and people of Hispanic origin are a most important segment of the U.S. population and national life. This population will be the majority in many parts of this country. The national doubling of Hispanic youth does not tell the story of cities where such young people will predominate. Education, churches, and youth programs need to be ready for this growth and responsive to the needs of this important constituency. These institutions must include and follow Hispanic leadership if they want to remain relevant and effective.

Dean Borgman cCYS