W. Strauss Resources

Strauss, W. & Howe, N. (1996, December 27-29). What’s next? USA Weekend.

OVERVIEW

This article is a summary of The Fourth Turning (Broadway Books of BDD Publishing Group), a 1997 book written by the authors of 13th Gen. That book outlined the current generations as follows:

The Silent Generation (b. 1925-42) fades from power, taking with them their reputation for tolerance, due process, and compromise (also called "Builders"). Boomers (b. 1943-60) become elder "priest-warriors" willing to risk young lives for a higher cause. Pompous and principled, they accept fewer public benefits in return for enhanced moral authority. 13ers (the 13th generation to call itself American, b. 1961-81) reach midlife struggling economically but doing well in family life. They apply their well-honed survival skills to do some tough but necessary jobs for the nation. Millennial (b. 1982- ) young adults bask in praise as they display optimism and teamwork, reduce crime, and perform great civic deeds. The nation will not tolerate obstacles to their future.

Now, in The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe turn their attention to historical cycles.

At the core of modern history lies a remarkable pattern. Over the last few centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era—a new turning—every two decades or so. At the start of each turning, people change how they feel about themselves, the culture, and the future.

Turnings come in cycles of four. Each cycle spans a long human lifetime, roughly 80-100 years. Together, the four turnings make up history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, disorder, and destruction.

The First Turning is a High, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order arises and the culture feels conformist and wholesome. The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when civic order comes under attack from a new set of values. The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order declines and the culture feels splintered and decadent. The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of upheaval that propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. Then the cycle starts over.

REVOLUTIONARY CYCLE 1704-1794

• Age of Empire (1704-27).
  • First confident flowering of provincial civilization in the Colonies.
  • Booming trade; recognizable cities.
  • Rising living standards.
• Great Awakening (1727-46).
  • Spiritual revival under Jonathan Edwards.
  • Tended to pit young believers against elders.
  • Old world social barriers were burst.
• French and Indian Wars (1746-73).
  • Growing economic and geographic mobility.
  • Growing debt, cynicism, and wilderness.
  • Weak leadership.
• American Revolution (1773-94).
  • Boston Tea Party ignited Colonial tinderbox.
  • Independence declared, successful conflict.
  • Constitution ratified.

CIVIL WAR CYCLE (1794-1865)

• Era of Good Feelings (1773-1822).
  • Vast territories mapped and settled.
  • Canals, steamboats, and turnpikes pushed back the wilderness.
• Transcendental Awakening (1822-44).
  • Slave revolts and women’s movement.
  • Romantic art/philosophies (Thoreau and Emerson).
  • Utopian communities.
• Mexican War and Sectionalism (1844-60).
  • Era of commercialism.
  • Walt Whitmanesque self-worship.
  • Splintering visions of nationhood.
• Civil War Era (1860-65).
  • Attack on Fort Sumter triggered election of Lincoln.
  • Bloodiest war ever fought in the New World.

GREAT POWER CYCLE (1865-1946)

• Reconstruction and Gilded Age (1865-86).
  • Industrialization.
  • New fortunes in railroads, mines, and oil wells.
  • Middle class prospers.
  • Pragmatic outlook.
• Third Great Awakening (1886-1908).
  • Labor riots.
  • Agrarian protests.
  • Muckrakers.
  • Chautauquas.
  • Evangelical revivals.
• World War I and Prohibition (1908-29).
  • Widening class divisions.
  • Crumbling trusts and stronger labor unions.
  • Fun-filled financial boom.
  • Jazz age; nihilism.
• Great Depression and World War II (1929-46).
  • Stock market crash and 3-year economic free fall.
  • The Great Depression.
  • FDR and the New Deal.
  • Pearl Harbor, D-day, VE day A-bomb; VJ day.

MILLENNIAL CYCLE (1946-2026?)

• American High (1946-64).

• America becomes global superpower.
• Middle class grows and moves to suburbs.
• Interstate highways.
• Bland modernist, spirit-dead culture.

 

The First Turning was the American High of the Truman, Eisenhower & Kennedy presidencies.

• Consciousness Revolution (1964-84).

• Black riots, campus fury, and war protests.
• Black power and civil rights movement.
• Environmental and feminist movements.
• Divorce epidemic.
• Rise in violent crime.

 

The Second Turning was the Consciousness Revolution, from the campus revolts of the mid-1960s to the tax revolts of the early 1980s.

• Culture Wars (1984-2005?).

• High tech individualism.
• "Family values" moralism.
• Worries about crime.
• Incivility and cultural decay.

 

The Third Turning has been the Culture Wars that began with Ronald Reagan’s mid-1980s "Morning in America." A classic example is Dan Quayle arguing with Hollywood over TV character Murphy Brown’s out-of-wedlock baby. This era is due to expire around the middle of what we call the Oh-Oh Decade—the first decade of the new century—eight or ten years from now.

• Fourth Turning (2005?-26?).

• Crisis catalyzes in the Oh-Oh Decade.
• Crisis climaxes around 2020.
• Crisis resolves a few years later.

 

The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the start of the new millennium. Around 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes, and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will seem to be at stake. Sometime before 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the Revolution, the Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimensions. There are several steps that the nation can take to best prepare for the future:

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• Clean up the culture. When events force a decadent society to mobilize, the result can be fascism.

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• Simplify. Shrink government now to make room for growth during a Crisis, when America will need public authority again.

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• Team up. Stress duties over rights. Use technology to unite people.

• Prepare youth. Teach civic habits and group skills. Shift government benefits away from the non-needy old and toward the needy young. The outcome of the Fourth Turning may depend on the mettle of the generation then coming of age.

 

There are several things that individuals can do to prepare for the future:

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• Prepare your family. Kinship will be the ultimate safety net for your health and old age; government will have other priorities.

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• Diversify your assets. Be prepared for a great devaluation about a decade from now.

• Safeguard your reputation. Come the Fourth Turning, classic virtues like loyalty, integrity, and civic honor will be newly prized by neighbors and public officials.

 

There are eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to eliminate our choices for responding. Yes, a new turning is coming, but the way it turns out is up to us.